The Construction Intelligence Center (CIC)
expects the pace of expansion in the Global
Construction Industry to average 3.6% a year over the forecast period
(2018-2022)-down slightly compared with 3.7% in the March 2018 forecast update.
In real value terms (measured at constant 2017 prices and USD exchange rates),
global construction output is forecast to rise to USD 12.7 trillion in 2022, up
from USD 10.6 trillion in 2017.
The global economy will continue to post
healthy rates of growth in 2018-2019, and investor confidence will remain
buoyant. The expected tightening in monetary policy in major markets in 2018
will start to push up the cost of borrowing, but with interest rates generally
at or near historic lows, this process is not expected to have a major impact
on construction activity during the early part of the forecast period.
Construction output growth will accelerate
marginally to 3.7% in 2019, before easing back in the latter part of the forecast
period, reflecting trends in some of the largest markets, notably China and the
US.
The acceleration in growth in global
construction output in 2018-2019 is being driven primarily by the pickup in
advanced economies, with combined growth in these markets rising to 2.7%,
compared to 2.0% in 2017.
Although growth in emerging markets will remain
in excess of that in advanced economies over the forecast period, there will be
a steady slowdown in growth in construction spending in emerging
markets-primarily reflecting trends in China, which has the largest
construction market in the world. In 2018-2022, construction output growth in
emerging markets will average 4.3% a year, down from 4.9% in 2013-2017.
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to
account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that
it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth
will slow, however, given the projected slowdown in China's construction
industry.
The emerging markets of South-East Asia will
invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment.
Meanwhile, construction growth in India will gather pace following a poor
performance in 2017.
Construction activity is gathering momentum
across Western Europe. The region's output will expand by 2.4% a year on
average in 2018-2022, improving on the sluggish growth of 1.1% in 2013-2017.
An overview of the outlook for the global
construction industry to 2022 Analysis of the outlook for the construction
industry in major global regions: North America, Latin America, Western Europe,
Eastern Europe, South and South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Australasia, the
Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa A comprehensive
benchmarking of 83 leading construction markets according to construction
market value and growth Analysis of the latest data on construction output
trends in key markets.
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